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Historical Deep Dive: Flaws in Major League Baseball's Postseason Selection Process

From 1997-2012, there were eleven division winners that jumped over at least one team from their respective League, with better record, that didn't make the playoffs.

1997 - Houston Astros (over the New York Mets)
2000 - New York Yankees (over the Cleveland Indians)
2001 - Atlanta Braves (over the San Francisco Giants)
2003 - Minnesota Twins (over the Seattle Mariners)
2005 - San Diego Padres (over the Philadelphia Phillies, Florida Marlins, AND New York Mets)
2006 - St. Louis Cardinals (over the Philadelphia Phillies)
2007 - Chicago Cubs (over the San Diego Padres and New York Mets)
2008 was so broken I have to stop this list and detail the travesty in more detail.

Talk about a poster child for Postseason reform. The Los Angeles Dodgers won the West, but had a worse record than 14 other teams in baseball. Since there was still only one NL Wild Card slot to be had, which went to the 90-72 Milwaukee Brewers, there was no more room at the inn for the New York Mets, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, and Florida Marlins. Four snubs in one League. Yeesh. And to top it off, the AL had an occurrence, too. The Chicago White Sox were a lesser team than three members of the East, but took the final playoff spot over the New York Yankees by virtue of a Central title.


Alexa, resume my list...

2009 - Minnesota Twins (over the Texas Rangers)
2012 - Detroit Tigers (over the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Angels)

Seven out of those eleven times, it was a Central Division winner. It's always the Central. And that's certainly the case here again in 2023. We're trending toward a full-blown 2008 debacle. 

So what can Major League Baseball do between now and whenever expansion inevitably takes place (2029 in my estimate)? Conceitedly I say, nothing but my proposal fixes it outright. But, until we get there, the Band-Aid is to amend the playoff seeding process. It's the low-hanging fruit to evolve the incentives; same as the NBA recently did. 

Using my current standings from above, this would be the National League side of the bracket. All the participants are correct, but the order isn't. Pittsburgh would slip down out of a #3 seed and a Wild Card Series at PNC Park. I don't think anyone would have an issue with this. I sure didn't last year with my Guardians in the exact same boat

Ultimately, Cleveland turned it on down the stretch and would have captured the 3 seed in any format. Their 92-70 record matched Toronto's, but the Guardians won that season series 2-1. Note: What a Game 163 that would have been. 

The bracket does not seem like it will "correct itself" in quite the same fashion this year. Part of that reason is because of the regular-season scheduling tweak — all 29 possible opponents getting played each and every year. This means Cleveland (and Minnesota) can't get as fat and happy off their own division anymore. September isn't overloaded with cupcakes Kansas City, Detroit, and Chicago any longer. That, and the top two (or three) teams in the other divisions are leaving the Central leader in their dust. 


Mark my words: Wild Cards (plural) will be better than a division winner in both leagues this year. This means a 3 seed should get bumped to the 5th or 6th spot and will not. Such a scenario would be unprecedented, albeit the contemporary format is only a year old. 

Last year's National League was the only side of the bracket that needed reshuffling, and only by one seed line. Because of the rules, the 101-win Mets were branded the 4 seed and had to play San Diego  instead of the 87-win Philadelphia. One would imagine that, if roles were reversed, a miracle World Series run by the 6-seed Phillies wouldn't have lasted more than two days at Citi Field. Instead, the Phillies went into Busch Stadium — and because of the protected division status — preyed upon a non-division rival that was far inferior. That 93-69 Cardinals club was propped up by not one, but two 100-loss members of the NL Central (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati). Momentum, that was likely not to exist, carried the Phillies the rest of the way through the NL.  

Much like the NCAA Tournament, match-ups and seed lines are everything. The Selection Committee can end a Cinderella story before it ever begins, for "styles make the fight." It's not hard to see how a 2022 would have been different for an Atlanta and New York if the Postseason was seeded properly.

Then again, we are hardly living in the worst era for playoff pairings in the sport's history. From 1969-1997, home-field advantage was predetermined and there were no seeds at all. Without Interleague Play of any kind, there was no way to know for certain if one League's best record was a mirage. But the alternating home/road split also (oddly) trickled down to the internal playoff format.

How does anyone involved with Major League Baseball explain the 104-win Oakland A's opening up the 1988 playoffs in Fenway Park against the 89-win Red Sox? Didn't matter much (4-0 sweep), but the principle of a club with 15 fewer wins "earning" Game 7 at home was a joke.

The World Series venue arrangement somehow devolved into further mockery in the not-so-distant past. From 2003 through 2016, home-field advantage in the World Series was awarded to the team hailing from the league who won that summer’s All-Star Game. Prior to that, it simply flipped back and forth from League to League depending on the year: Odds (AL), evens (NL). The solution — better regular-season winning percentage — was sitting there the whole time; finally instituted as Interleague Play scattered throughout the entire calendar became a thing.

Much was made of Don Denkinger's blown call at first base during Game 6 of the 1985 World Series. From where I sit, the bigger umbrage can be found in the four home games granted to the 91-71 Kansas City Royals, including pivotal Games 6 and 7. The 101-61 St. Louis Cardinals only had three. All because of some mandatory back-and-forth rhythm.  

I hate being a wet blanket, but one of the most memorable games of my youth  1995's 11-inning Game 5 thriller at the Kingdome — should never been played in Seattle... nor involved the Yankees at all. In traditional terminology, the Mariners were the AL's 4 seed. New York was the #3. 

It was a day-and-age where Division Series gave the better club three consecutive home games, but only after starting Games 1 and 2 on the road. That same season, the National League's #1 (Atlanta) and #2 (Cincinnati), both began their best-of-five series on the road, all because of a random rotation. Quite literally, the proper people were on the bus, but not a single one was sitting in the right seat.  

This is partly because the original rule surrounding inclusion of a second-place finisher was that they could not meet their division's winner in the first round. This was asinine and extended all the way through the creation of the Wild Card Game in 2013. It potentially cost some great Indians teams more October victories. In 1996, the Tribe was the reigning AL Pennant Winners and top winning percentage in baseball. They properly matched up against the Wild Card Orioles. However, they began the ALDS in Baltimore and fell into an 0-2 hole they never could dig themselves out of. What good is that home-field advantage of Games 4 and 5 if you're backed up against it long before that? 

Same story in the NL with 4-seed St. Louis jumping out to a 2-0 lead before San Diego (with a better regular-season record) even had a chance to play at home. 

In 1997, the 92-win Marlins were the betting favorites to win an NLDS against San Francisco. Rightly so; they swept a much weaker Giants squad en route to an improbable (and first-ever) Wild Card World Series Championship. However, my heart wouldn't have been ripped out of my chest — over the outcome of that year's Fall Classic  if Florida played #1 seed Atlanta (101-61) in the first round. The inconsistency of treating the Wild Card as each league's worst seed, but not when geography got in the way, was maddening. 

For instance: The Red Sox and Yankees should have met in the 1995, 1998, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2009, and 2010 American League Division Series. Obviously, they did not. Sure, this would have taken away the drama of Aaron *Bleeping* Boone and the 3-0 Comeback the following year, but so be it. The rules would have been evenly applied to, and understood well in advance by, all parties. #1 plays the best second place finisher, period. There should have never been any wait and see.  

Now, the language needs to be different, but that sentiment of absolutes is what a 32-team Major League Baseball needs. Cherry picking Final Four match-ups to include darling Yankees/Red Sox is great for the ratings but terrible for the other clubs competing just as hard. There cannot be anymore "Yeah, but" when it comes to arranging the bracket. This summer's Central Divisions are going to make that abundantly clear. And when the storyline of the 2023 Postseason is written, and it's not the way it should have been constructed, don't come crying to me.   

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